Bataan Nuclear Power Plant Rehabilitation: Feasibility Assessment Framework

The Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) in Morong, Bataan, Philippines, completed in 1984 but never fueled/operated, faces a potential rehabilitation decision. A rigorous, transparent assessment must address:

1. Safety Case

• IAEA Safety Standards (SSR-2/1, SSG-2) compliance review.
• Seismic re-evaluation (Philippines: active faults, subduction zones).
• Volcanic hazard (Mt. Natib, Pinatubo).
• Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) Level 1 & 2.
• Fukushima lessons: station blackout, spent fuel pool, hydrogen mitigation.

2. Technical Condition

• Material degradation after 40 years (concrete, rebar, pressure vessel, piping, cables).
• Obsolescence: analog I&C, unavailable spare parts, outdated codes.
• Modernization scope: digital I&C, passive safety systems, containment upgrades.

3. Economics

• Capital cost: $1–3B+ estimates (refurbishment + modernization).
• LCOE vs. renewables (solar/wind + storage), gas, coal.
• Financing: sovereign guarantee, PPA structure, foreign currency risk.
• Decommissioning fund adequacy (if not rehabilitated).

4. Fuel Cycle

• Uranium: 100% imported (no domestic mining). Supply security, price volatility.
• Spent fuel: No national repository; interim dry cask storage needed.
• Non-proliferation: IAEA safeguards, 123 Agreement (US).

5. Environmental & Waste

• EIA update (marine thermal discharge, terrestrial ecology).
• Radwaste management plan (LILW, HLW).
• Climate benefit: ~3–4 Mt CO₂/yr avoided vs. coal.

6. Governance & Social License

• Independent nuclear regulator (Philippine Nuclear Research Institute → separate body needed).
• Transparency: open data, public hearings, indigenous community consent (Aeta).
• Emergency planning zones (EPZ) implementation.

7. Alternatives Comparison

Integrated Resource Plan must weigh BNPP against: utility-scale solar/wind + battery, geothermal, natural gas (LNG), demand-side management, grid interconnection.

Decision must be evidence-based, multi-stakeholder, and insulated from political cycles.